Why now
The energy buildout is one of
the defining investment themes
of the next decade.
The global energy system is undergoing capital-intensive change across every dimension — how power is generated, moved, stored, and consumed. The infrastructure required to meet growing demand and replace aging assets is well short of where it needs to be. The gap between where things are and where they need to go is large, long in duration, and just beginning to attract the capital it requires.
$170T
Total global energy infrastructure investment needed through 2050
IEA; illustrative
2x
Expected growth in global electricity demand by 2050
IEA World Energy Outlook; illustrative
~2/3
Of all energy input globally is lost as waste heat
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory; illustrative
01
Electricity demand is growing in ways that are new and unlikely to reverse
Fastest demand growth in developed markets in decades
AI data centers, EV adoption, industrial electrification, and the return of manufacturing to the US and Europe are all electricity-intensive. For the first time in decades, demand in developed markets is rising sharply again, and the infrastructure serving it was designed for a different era. Grid operators and utilities are responding, but capital deployment will need to accelerate considerably to keep pace.
02
The grid is a binding constraint, and investment has lagged for years
$1.2T US grid investment gap through 2035
The US has added more energy generation capacity than its transmission system can move. Interconnection queues in some regions have stretched to over eight years. Europe and Asia face similar constraints. The modernization required to support growing electrification is among the most capital-intensive buildouts of this era, and it is only getting started.
03
Energy security is a priority across much of the world, and investment is following
Domestic energy resilience now a top priority across major economies
The energy disruptions of recent years have fundamentally changed how governments think about energy. Energy security is now a bipartisan priority across the globe. This creates durable, policy-backed demand for domestic generation, grid resilience, and supply chain sovereignty that transcends any single administration or political cycle. Our thesis does not require a specific political environment; it requires governments to keep prioritizing security.
04
Critical minerals sit at the center of the energy buildout, and supply is running short
Supply-demand gaps building across multiple parts of the minerals complex
Most energy pathways depend on minerals whose supply chains are chronically underfunded and slow to develop. Permitting alone can take decades. Governments are beginning to treat mineral access as a strategic issue, which historically precedes significant capital flows into the sector.
05
The aging energy fleet requires substantial capital, regardless of what comes next
A wave of investment decisions is approaching, whether operators retire or extend
Much of the baseload generation capacity in advanced economies was built in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s and is now 40 to 60 years old. Operators face a wave of expensive decisions: retire and replace, or extend and maintain, and neither path is cheap. That capital requirement exists regardless of policy outcomes or the pace of the broader energy transition.
06
Falling technology costs are reshaping the economics of energy globally
Multiple technologies now cost-competitive across a widening range of markets
The cost of generating, storing, and managing energy has fallen considerably across a range of technologies over the past decade. These reflect real learning curves, manufacturing scale, and engineering progress. The result is that geographies previously constrained to a narrow set of energy options are now revisiting what their optimal mix looks like, expanding the global investment opportunity set in ways that are still being understood.